Could the Blues still keep OReilly and Tarasenko? Trade for Chychrun? Mailbag, part 1

The Blues went into their game against the Flames on Thursday night with a chance to move back into a playoff spot for the first time since Nov. 28, when they lost to the Stars and fell out of the Western Conferences second wild-card spot.

The Blues went into their game against the Flames on Thursday night with a chance to move back into a playoff spot for the first time since Nov. 28, when they lost to the Stars and fell out of the Western Conference’s second wild-card spot.

Come Friday, the Blues were still sitting on the outside looking in.

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“That was obviously a big emphasis on this game was the standings and how close the two teams are,” said Blues rookie Jake Neighbours, who had the team’s only goal in the 4-1 loss to the Flames. “It’s unfortunate that we didn’t get the second one (in the two-game set), but we’ve got to keep building. That’s not the end of it.”

It may not be the end, but the Blues have earned points in 12 of their last 16 games on their way past the halfway point of the season. Several veterans have done admirable job carrying the club in the aftermath of many key injuries, but they can perhaps only do that for so long. And while the players called up from AHL Springfield have also contributed, it’s asking a lot for that to continue for an extended stretch.

This week, The Athletic asked for your questions, and it seems that many of you are looking ahead to the future. Let’s get to your questions in Part 1 of the mailbag.

(Note: Questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length).

Do you think Blues general manager Doug Armstrong is fooled by the recent victories and will be hesitant to trade Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko? — Gary M.

I don’t think so. I don’t see how Armstrong could see it differently than most of us do, which is that this club just doesn’t have it together. Even if they stay afloat and get their injured players back before the trade deadline on March 3, there have just been too many recurring issues this season. If the Blues are cleaning out their lockers at the end of the regular season, or even after the first round of the playoffs, and O’Reilly and Tarasenko are still around, they missed out on a chance to cash in on some valuable assets. Now, if they’re still around because the team decides to re-sign O’Reilly or Tarasenko won’t waive his no-trade clause, so be it.

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With the injuries to O’Reilly and Tarasenko, what do you feel is the effect on the trade market for them? — John N.

I don’t believe it’s going to have a big impact as long as they make it back before the deadline. According to the timetable the Blues gave, Tarasenko will be re-evaluated about a month before the deadline and O’Reilly about two weeks before. They are injuries that heal with time and those timetables should be pretty close, but you never know. They’ll have to knock some rust off, but as Armstrong said, teams are familiar with both players and what they’re capable of. Some clubs might even look at the time off as a positive, that they’re getting a rested player. Either way, I don’t see a situation in which the Blues get a lot less than they would have unless they just don’t look healthy.

Does the O’Reilly trade speculation have more to do with the team’s performance or has there been no discussion to re-sign him? — Tyler S.

It’s a combination of reasons, but the Blues’ underperforming is probably the biggest. If they were sitting in second place in the Central right now, it’d probably mean O’Reilly was playing well and the team wouldn’t be selling at the deadline. That doesn’t mean it would be automatic he’d be re-signed, but probably a better chance. But with the way the season has unfolded, the Blues might want to go in a different direction.

What’s the likelihood of O’Reilly and the Blues pulling a Keith Tkachuk, who the Blues traded to Atlanta at the deadline in 2007 and then re-signed the following offseason? — Matthew F.

The Blues did it with Doug Weight, too, trading him to Carolina in 2006. He won a Stanley Cup with the Hurricanes that year, then re-signed with the Blues. Regarding O’Reilly, anything is possible, yeah, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I think if they trade him, they’re deciding to move on.

If the Blues decide to trade Tarasenko, how much will his no-trade clause impact the return? Is your sense that he would be open to most Stanley Cup contenders or that he’ll try to pick his destination? — Dante P.

This is something to watch. To my knowledge, Tarasenko has not rescinded his trade request, and the expectation is that he’ll move on this offseason if not at the trade deadline. But as you mentioned, Tarasenko does have a full no-trade clause, and I don’t think we should assume that he’ll waive it to go anywhere. He’s a family guy who could finish the season with the Blues and then pick his spot, or he might decide to not go out of his way to help the Blues after they failed to facilitate his trade request. That said, Armstrong is only going to work with teams he thinks Tarasenko would go to, and if Tarasenko wants to improve his stock as a pending unrestricted free agent, having a great postseason somewhere will do so.

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If Tarasenko comes back and proves he is healthy, who says “no” to this trade proposal? — Derek C.

  • Blues receive: Jakob Chychrun (retain some of Tarasenko’s salary)
  • Coyotes receive: Blues’ first (2024), Blues’ third (2023), Islanders’ first (2023), Zachary Bolduc, Marco Scandella
  • Islanders receive: Tarasenko

I think Arizona would like this. I know they want a haul for Chychrun, and getting two first-round picks and a prospect like Bolduc would be a nice return. I think the Blues might like it, too. They move Tarasenko, improve their defense, and while they wouldn’t want to lose Bolduc, they’ll have to give to get. Because they’re going to lose Tarasenko, they’re basically trading a first- and a third-round pick and Bolduc for Chychrun, who has two seasons left on his deal ($4.6 million average annual value), and they’ll shed the final season of Scandella’s contract ($3.275 million). Unfortunately, I don’t think the Islanders, who are scuffling, will want to move a first-rounder for a Tarasenko rental.

Which question are you tired of answering the most? 1) Will Tarasenko and/or O’Reilly will be traded at the deadline, and if so, what’s the likely return for each? 2) Do you think Armstrong regrets the handling of the Alex Pietrangelo situation? — Haiden H.

Well, if you guys didn’t ask these questions, I wouldn’t have a … it’s the Tarasenko/O’Reilly questions. I’m kidding, I’m kidding! As you can see from today’s mailbag, there are a lot of them, but that’s expected.

Blues’ roster evolution: Assessing the job GM Doug Armstrong has done since the Stanley Cup run. #stlblues https://t.co/0uDqxvK5sV

— Jeremy Rutherford (@jprutherford) December 16, 2022

I know Armstrong won’t admit it, but do you think he regrets the way he handled the Pietrangelo negotiations? — Tyler C.

Can I re-do my last answer?

The Blues’ All-Star pick was a head-scratcher. Nothing against Tarasenko, but he’s injured and may not be healthy for the game. Jordan Kyrou seemed like a no-brainer, being the leading scorer and the reigning fastest skater. Any further insight? — David W.

I get the reaction because I had the same one, but it does make some sense. Before I explain, for those who aren’t familiar with the process, NHL All-Stars are selected by the league’s hockey operations department in conjunction with the individual clubs. In other words, it’s likely Colin Campbell and Armstrong. A lot of Blues fans joked that Armstrong picked Tarasenko to help raise his value at the deadline, and, hey, maybe there’s some truth to that. But here’s how I see it: In all likelihood, this will be Tarasenko’s last season in St. Louis. It’s been a great run that includes a Stanley Cup. What better way to honor him than make him an All-Star? There’s a decent chance he won’t be able to play, and if he can’t, then the Blues can send another player.

Any update on Scandella? Is there a realistic chance he’ll be back this season? — Stanislav L.

Scandella skated with the Blues in Thursday’s morning skate and looks like he’s moving pretty well. But Craig Berube has been saying that other than Nick Leddy, who may return to the lineup Saturday against Tampa Bay, none of the other injured players are close to returning. If I had to guess, I think the team is probably looking at February, when it comes back from the All-Star break and bye week. The Blues’ last game before an 11-day break is Jan. 30 and they return Feb. 10. That doesn’t mean he’d come back on Feb. 10, but around then.

How close is Scott Perunovich to a return? — Ted M.

Perunovich has also been skating with the Blues, and I’d probably put him on the same timeline. I know the team is desperate for defense, but it just doesn’t make sense to bring them back before the break.

With Scandella and Perunovich coming back in the near future, and Leddy and Torey Krug eventually, too, what would you predict the defensive pairs will look like? — Jared L.

There’s not room for everybody — or even enough salary-cap space unless the Blues make some moves. Here’s what the group would look like if everyone was healthy and available:

Blues defense

Nick Leddy

Colton Parayko

Torey Krug

Justin Faulk

Niko Mikkola/Marco Scandella/Calle Rosen

Robert Bortuzzo/Scott Perunovich

I can’t see anyone being moved at the deadline with the exception of Niko Mikkola, who is a pending UFA, and maybe Scandella in a salary dump. Calle Rosen has a two-way contract and could be sent to the AHL, but he’s been one of the Blues’ best defensemen. Depending on whether there are other moves, my guess is they would keep seven or even eight and just move them in and out of the lineup.

If I had to predict, I would say Leddy-Colton Parayko, Krug-Faulk and Rosen-Mikkola, with Bortuzzo getting some games, too. That leaves out Perunovich and Scandella, who I think will play, but they’re coming off long-term injuries, and it’s going to take time before they can be counted on.

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Why do the Blues’ defensemen seem to activate less often and later than almost every other team? Is it by design or just mental because they are playing poorly? — Matt H.

The Blues’ system is definitely one where Berube and assistant Mike Van Ryn want them activated. They’ve been part of the offense this season, but, like you say, there’s probably some hesitancy because of the team’s poor play in the defensive zone (sixth-most goals against in the NHL, 154). So definitely not by design — more to do with the poor play and lack of confidence.

How much do you think Armstrong regrets not protecting Vince Dunn in the expansion draft, and if he could do it again, who do you think he wouldn’t protect? — Michael T.

I don’t think he does. They had the option of protecting seven forwards, three defensemen and a goalie or protecting eight skaters and a goalie, and they went with option No. 1. Say what you want to about Parayko and Krug, but the Blues weren’t going to expose them. They tried to trade Dunn but couldn’t get more than a third-round pick, and they decided if they had to lose somebody in the draft, exposing Dunn would preserve someone else. The only way to keep Dunn would’ve been exposing one of their top three defensemen because if they had protected eight skaters, they would’ve only been able to keep four forwards out of O’Reilly, Robert Thomas, Kyrou, Ivan Barbashev, Brayden Schenn, David Perron and Oskar Sundqvist.

Is Schenn’s latest performance showing that he’s ready to be the next captain? — Todd L.

If O’Reilly departs, Schenn is the guy I’m going with for now. I can completely understand anyone making a case for Thomas, but I’ll stick to what Armstrong said a couple of years ago, which was you choose the captain who makes the most sense in that moment. Thomas could be that player now, and for sure in the future, but Schenn seems to be the team’s heart and soul, and he’s got five years left on his deal.

10 things the Blues need to figure out about the current team as their focus turns to the future. #stlblues https://t.co/k9ezbBxVce

— Jeremy Rutherford (@jprutherford) January 5, 2023

If a retool or rebuild is the course the Blues go, do Pavel Buchnevich and/or Brandon Saad get moved? – Daniel G.

No, neither. I’d almost consider Buchnevich an untouchable, especially with a $5.8 million AAV the next two seasons, and Saad has been showing lately that he can be a steal, too, with a $4.5 million AAV and three years left.

I have really liked Nikita Alexandrov’s game. Can we get him some more minutes? – Casey S.

I really like Alexandrov, too. A couple of years ago, former Blues scouting director Bill Armstrong, who drafted Alexandrov, compared him to Tyler Bozak. I asked Berube about that comparison this week, and while he said it’s not a bad one, he pointed out that Alexandrov is more physical. I think the Blues are quickly getting comfortable with Alexandrov in the lineup, and he could be a regular on the fourth line next season. As far as more minutes this season, he’s at 8:49 per game now, which is probably perfect as he gets settled in and establishes himself.

I know Armstrong has already assured us that Berube isn’t going anywhere, but do you think a coaching change would help? Giving Thomas and Kyrou the big deals means the Blues are going toward a young, speedy, more skill-based future, which is decidedly not Berube’s style. — Geoff H.

No, I don’t. I think Berube is still the right guy for the job. He can coach skilled players, as long as those skilled players work hard. And I mean no disrespect with this comment, but I don’t know too many coaches who aren’t going to ask the same. I get this question a lot, and I’ll say this: Hasn’t Berube given Kyrou and Thomas a lot of opportunity and, when they weren’t up to par, pushed them to be better? They’ve become really good players under him, which I think should prove his ability to manage different types of players.

(Top photo of Ryan O’Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko: Jeff Curry / USA Today)

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