The early signing period is only five weeks away, which means we’re about to enter the stretch run for the 2024 recruiting cycle.
For some programs, that’s a good thing. They’re going to put the finishing touches on a great or solid recruiting class that they and their fans will be happy with. For some others, the walls are closing in on what may be a disappointing recruiting cycle. It has been a few months since we examined the recruiting panic index, and with the early signing period getting closer, it’s time to evaluate how worried some programs should feel about their recruiting classes.
Advertisement
Note: All rankings are from the 247Sports Composite
Panic level: Good but not elite
The Trojans’ recruiting class ranks 18th nationally. The average player rating for their 17-member class is 91.16. Those numbers are fine, but Lincoln Riley and USC’s stated goal is to compete for national championships.
Viewing this recruiting class through that lens, the Trojans aren’t recruiting at the level necessary to be an elite program — especially as they move into the Big Ten. It’s difficult to see a major surge up the rankings late because the top 13 players in California already are committed.
Four-star defensive tackle Jericho Johnson is still uncommitted, and USC has been in the mix, but even if the Trojans land him — it’ll be difficult without a defensive coordinator in place — it won’t be enough to vault them up the rankings.
GO DEEPER
Why is USC's recruiting creating so much anxiety among the fan base?
USC has landed just two commitments since July 1, and both came from three-star prospects so recruiting is going through a major slog.
The Trojans have six top-150 players committed in this class, but only two of them play defense, and this season has shown that they need more talent on defense. The lack of high-level additions there is troubling.
GO DEEPER
Jimbo Fisher's Texas A&M slide from title dreams to 'stuck in neutral'
Panic level: Can we keep this together?
Texas A&M
Talent accumulation was never a problem for Jimbo Fisher. Getting the most out of the talent was. Under Fisher, Texas A&M has put together the 10th-ranked recruiting class during the 2024 cycle. The Aggies have 17 blue-chip commits in their 20-member class, and five of those players rank in the top 150.
There have been no decommitments since Fisher was fired Sunday morning, which is a positive development for Texas A&M. This class would be a good foundational piece for a new coach to inherit, but it’ll certainly be a challenge for that person to keep it together — along with the talent already on the roster, like the famed 2022 recruiting class that was ranked first nationally. So the upcoming hire is critical for the Aggies.
Sonny Dykes’ TCU program played in the national championship game against Georgia last season. (Jerome Miron / USA Today)Panic level: Where’s the bump?
There’s always some thought that if a program breaks through on the field, then that program will receive a substantial boost on the recruiting trail. So with TCU reaching the College Football Playoff last year and playing for the national championship, there was potential for a recruiting bump this cycle.
Advertisement
But the Horned Frogs’ class ranks 33rd nationally, and there aren’t a ton of uncommitted in-state blue-chip options available to help TCU boost its ranking. The Horned Frogs finished with the 21st-ranked class last cycle. At this stage, it probably would be a surprise to see them finish that high in the rankings.
Now TCU seems like other teams that have made the Playoff but haven’t capitalized with a massive, sustained bump — like Michigan State, Oregon (under Mark Helfrich), Washington and Michigan.
To make matters worse, the Horned Frogs’ on-field performance has declined this season, and they’re in danger of missing a bowl after last season’s breakthrough.
Panic level: Wait till next year?
In the 10 recruiting cycles before Jeff Brohm arrived at Purdue, the Boilermakers reeled in just one top-40 signing class. Brohm signed three top-40 classes in six recruiting cycles at Purdue.
He has punched above his weight before, but in his first full recruiting cycle at Louisville, the Cardinals’ class ranks 50th, and their average player rating is only 87.18. That’s a drop from last cycle when Louisville finished with the No. 31 class and an average player rating of 89.38.
Brohm was active in the transfer portal last offseason, and several of the additions have played significant roles during the Cardinals’ rise to the top 10. This season’s success may lead to a better class next season, but with only one commit who ranks in the top 300 nationally, Brohm may need to dip into the portal again to add more talent to the roster this offseason.
Panic level: Transition class incoming
Mississippi State is never going to wow in the recruiting rankings, but there were some concerning elements to the Bulldogs’ recruiting before the program fired coach Zach Arnett on Monday morning.
Advertisement
Mississippi State is just 15th — behind Vanderbilt and only ahead of Missouri — in the SEC recruiting rankings. The Bulldogs hold commitments from just one of the state’s top 10 prospects. Ole Miss, Mississippi State’s chief rival, has commitments from five of the state’s top 10 recruits. The Bulldogs have just four top-500 players in their class.
Now that Arnett has been fired and a new coach will only have a few weeks to recruit before the early signing period comes, this is destined to be a transition class. A new coach will have the stability that Arnett didn’t have, however, and that should provide a boost in future cycles.
GO DEEPER
MSU fires first-year coach Zach Arnett
Panic level: Where’s the beef?
Colorado hasn’t necessarily been good this season, but it has been entertaining to watch. The preseason skeptics have been right and wrong about the Buffaloes at different points of the year.
But Colorado has lost six of its past seven games, and the offensive line has been a major issue throughout that skid. The Buffaloes have allowed 49 sacks this season, which is the second most among all FBS teams — ahead of only Old Dominion.
Do we expect Deion Sanders to go portal shopping for offensive linemen? Yes, but that’s not a sustainable method for building an offensive line for the long term. Colorado’s class has a commitment from one high school offensive lineman — three-star prospect Talan Chandler — and he’s not ranked inside the top 1,000.
The Buffaloes need more blue-chip offensive linemen, and it doesn’t seem like many are on the way this cycle. There are two four-star defensive linemen in Colorado’s class, which is a decent start but the Buffaloes have only 10 commits. Their class ranks 63rd. There probably will be a surprise or two late in the cycle — there always seems to be one with Sanders — but the guess is Colorado will be active in the portal again when it opens next month.
Panic level: The outlook is bleak
Things have declined rapidly for Baylor since the 12-2 Sugar Bowl-winning season in 2021. Bears coach Dave Aranda followed that up with a 6-7 season in 2022, and Baylor is just 3-7 going into the final two games of this season.
Advertisement
Things are looking pretty dark on the recruiting trail too. Baylor doesn’t have a commit who ranks among the nation’s top 500 prospects. The Bears have nearly as many commits who rank inside the top 1,000 (seven) as they do who rank outside of it (six).
Aranda’s first three full classes have ranked anywhere from 35th to 41st. Baylor’s class is 61st nationally and is 11th in the new-look Big 12. Without on-field success, it’s difficult to envision how the Bears’ class will improve by much. And beyond that, the uncertainty surrounding Aranda’s status will make things tougher in future recruiting cycles — with losses like the 59-25 defeat to Kansas State this past weekend only adding fuel to the fire.
Panic level: Send help
Houston
A few weeks ago, Houston coach Dana Holgorsen said that “the ship has sailed” on the Cougars’ 2024 recruiting class. He didn’t lie — and it won’t be a cycle that he or Houston’s fans will want to remember much.
Houston is a Power 5 program now and carries high expectations for itself. Even though the Cougars are now card-carrying members of the Big 12, their recruiting is far too close to Mountain West and MAC levels.
Houston is 101st in the national rankings, and its average player rating is 86.11. There are only eight commitments in the Cougars’ class with five weeks left before the signing period. Only two of those commitments rank inside the top 1,000 nationally. That’s too little time to salvage this class.
There has been plenty of hot seat discussion surrounding Holgorsen, who posted a 12-2 season in 2021 but is just 31-26 in five years and on pace for his third losing season in that span. His job performance and the uncertainty it has created causes major problems on the recruiting trail.
Holgorsen said 2024 recruits needed to see Houston play a Big 12 schedule and the sort of atmosphere that creates for the fans. But UCF is No. 29 in the rankings, and Cincinnati is 44th, and those two programs are making similar transitions to the league.
Advertisement
So Holgoersen said that this class will be made up primarily of portal and junior college transfers.
If Holgorsen does make it through this year, it’s hard to see him surviving this sort of recruiting for much longer. If Houston does move on, it’ll need much better recruiting from its coach if it wants to reach its potential.
(Top photo of Lincoln Riley: Tom Hauck / Getty Images)
ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57lGltbHFgbXxzfJFsZmppX2aCcK%2FOpaOen5Vis7C705uYpaRdp7KkvtSiq6Kml2K9orrInGSmnaSav27B0pxknKecpL%2BisM5o