College football midseason bowl projections: Great teams left out of College Football Playoff

The Athletic has live coverage of the College Football Playoff rankings release show. In taking our first stab of the season at The Athletics bowl projections, we found ourselves dealing with quite a pickle. Our forecasted end-of-season top 5 looked like this:

The Athletic has live coverage of the College Football Playoff rankings release show.

In taking our first stab of the season at The Athletic’s bowl projections, we found ourselves dealing with quite a pickle. Our forecasted end-of-season top 5 looked like this:

Some extremely deserving team gets left out of the College Football Playoff. We gave the Sooners the shaft for now, because their only Top 25 wins might end up being against Texas (twice), whereas Washington and Florida State could have three or four. We also see three Big Ten teams (Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State) making New Year’s Six bowls, Alabama finishing 11-2 and making the Peach Bowl, and Air Force, currently 6-0, becoming the annual Group of 5 New Year’s Six bowl participant.

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Finally, we came up one short on projected 6-6 teams. Fill-in teams are chosen based on order of APR scores, so here’s a nugget to file away for later: Minnesota and Wake Forest would be up first.

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Requisite reminder: Most bowls do not have to choose in order of conference standings. When you see Arizona listed as “Pac-12 No. 3,” it does not mean that we think the 4-3 Wildcats will finish third in the conference, but rather the Las Vegas Bowl uses its No. 3 pick to select the Wildcats.

All times Eastern.

New Year's Six

BOWLDATETEAMLOCATIONTIME

Cotton

Dec. 29

Oregon (at-large) vs. Oklahoma (Big 12)

Arlington, Tex.

8 p.m.

Peach

Dec. 30

Alabama (at-large) vs. Penn State (at-large)

Atlanta

Noon

Orange

Dec. 30

North Carolina (ACC) vs. Ohio State (SEC/B1G/ND)

Miami

4 p.m.

Fiesta

Jan. 1

Texas (at-large) vs. Air Force (Group of 5)

Glendale, Ariz.

1 p.m.

Rose

Jan. 1

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 4 Florida State

Pasadena, Calif.

5 p.m.

Sugar

Jan. 1

No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Washington

New Orleans

8:45 p.m.

Remaining Bowls

BOWLDATETEAMTEAMLOCATIONTIME

Independence

Dec. 16

Oklahoma State (Big 12 No. 7)

Washington State (Pac-12 No. 7)

Shreveport, La.

9:15 p.m.

LA Bowl

Dec. 16

UCLA (Pac-12 No. 6)

Fresno State (MWC No. 1)

Inglewood, Calif.

7:30 p.m.

New Mexico

Dec. 16

Wyoming (MWC)

Louisiana (ESPN)

Albuquerque, N.M.

5:45 p.m.

Cure

Dec. 16

Marshall (ESPN)

USF (ESPN)

Orlando, Fla.

3:30 p.m.

New Orleans

Dec. 16

Troy (Sun Belt)

Liberty (C-USA)

New Orleans

2:15 p.m.

Bahamas

Dec. 16

Eastern Michigan (MAC)

Western Kentucky (C-USA)

Nassau, Bahamas

11 a.m.

Myrtle Beach

Dec. 18

Georgia State (ESPN)

FAU (ESPN)

Myrtle Beach, S.C.

2:30 p.m.

Frisco

Dec. 19

Texas State (ESPN)

Colorado State (ESPN)

Frisco, Tex.

9 p.m.

Boca Raton

Dec. 21

Bowling Green (ESPN)

Coastal Carolina (ESPN)

Boca Raton, Fla.

8 p.m.

Gasparilla

Dec. 22

Georgia Southern (ESPN)

Toledo (ESPN)

Tampa, Fla.

6:30 p.m.

Hawaii

Dec. 23

Utah State (MWC)

Tulsa (AAC)

Honolulu

10:30 p.m.

Vegas

Dec. 23

Arizona (Pac-12 No. 3)

Wisconsin (Big Ten No. 3)

Las Vegas

7:30 p.m.

68 Ventures

Dec. 23

Appalachian State (Sun Belt)

New Mexico State (C-USA)

Mobile, Ala.

7 p.m.

Idaho Potato

Dec. 23

Boise State (MWC)

Central Michigan (MAC)

Boise, Idaho

3:30 p.m.

Armed Forces

Dec. 23

SMU (ESPN)

Minnesota** (ESPN)

Fort Worth, Tex.

3:30 p.m.

Birmingham

Dec. 23

Tulane (AAC)

Auburn (SEC No. 9)

Birmingham, Ala.

Noon

Camellia

Dec. 23

South Alabama (ESPN)

NIU (ESPN)

Montgomery, Ala.

Noon

Guaranteed Rate

Dec. 26

Maryland (Big Ten No. 6)

Kansas (Big 12 No. 6)

Phoenix, Ariz.

9 p.m.

First Responder

Dec. 26

TCU (Big 12 No. 8)

UTSA (ESPN)

University Park, Tex.

5:30 p.m.

Quick Lane

Dec. 26

Illinois (Big Ten No. 7)

Ohio (MAC)

Detroit

2 p.m.

Texas

Dec. 27

Iowa State (Big 12 No. 4)

Texas A&M (SEC Nos. 3-8)

Houston

9 p.m.

Holiday

Dec. 27

Miami (ACC Nos. 4-6)

Oregon State (Pac-12 No. 4)

San Diego, Calif.

8 p.m.

Duke's Mayo

Dec. 27

LSU (SEC Nos. 3-8)

Duke (ACC Nos. Nos. 4-6)

Charlotte, N.C.

5:30 p.m.

Military

Dec. 27

Navy (AAC)

Syracuse (ACC No. 9)

Annapolis, Md.

2 p.m.

Alamo

Dec. 28

Kansas State (Big 12 No. 2)

USC (Pac-12 No. 2)

San Antonio

9:15 p.m.

Pop Tarts

Dec. 28

West Virginia (Big 12 No. 3)

Louisville (ACC No. 3)

Orlando, Fla.

5:45 p.m.

Pinstripe

Dec. 28

Rutgers (Big Ten No. 5)

Georgia Tech (ACC No. 7)

Bronx, N.Y.

2:15 p.m.

Fenway

Dec. 28

NC State (ACC No. 10)

Memphis (AAC)

Boston

11 a.m.

Liberty

Dec. 29

BYU (Big 12 No. 5)

Kentucky (SEC Nos. 3-8)

Memphis, Tenn.

3:30 p.m.

Sun

Dec. 29

Virginia Tech (ACC No. 8)

Utah (Pac-12 No. 5)

El Paso, Tex.

2 p.m.

Gator

Dec. 29

Clemson (ACC Nos. 4-6)

Florida (SEC Nos. 3-8)

Jacksonville, Fla.

Noon

Arizona

Dec. 30

UNLV (MWC)

Miami of Ohio (MAC)

Tucson, Ariz.

4:30 p.m.

Music City

Dec. 30

Nebraska (Big Ten No. 4)

Missouri (SEC Nos. 3-8)

Nashville, Tenn.

2 p.m.

Citrus

Jan. 1

Iowa (Big Ten No. 2)

Tennessee (SEC No. 2)

Orlando, Fla.

1 p.m.

ReliaQuest

Jan. 1

Notre Dame (ACC No. 2)

Ole Miss (SEC Nos. 3-8)

Tampa, Fla.

Noon

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(Photo: Michael Wade / Icon Sportswire via Getty)

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